Point guards are in transition this season. The Milwaukee Bucks acquired Damian Lillard, pairing him with perfect pick-and-roll partner Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Celtics picked up Jrue Holiday, giving them the strongest starting lineup in the league. James Harden, who called Daryl Morey a liar, is a conscientious objector. In the West, the Warriors traded for Chris Paul, giving them two pantheon lead guards. The Rockets added the savvy Fred VanVleet to their young team. The Grizzlies found Marcus Smart to spell the suspended Ja Morant. The Trail Blazers cleared the floor for rookie Scoot Henderson.
The games played projections are based on last season, the previous two seasons, and the idea that players gravitate toward 72 games played. A player’s recent history is the leading indicator of how many games he will play. There is little chance that that LeBron James, Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard play 65 games. The charts include each player’s age, games played last season and projected games played this season.
The NBA’s new player participation policy (PPP) and end-of-season awards requirements won’t make a significant difference. But in some notable cases, like Damian Lillard or Jimmy Butler, I rounded up to 65 games — the minimum for receiving All-NBA recognition.
— Kevin Brewer
Denver Nuggets >> The favorites to win again, with the undisputed best player in the league. Denver’s top four players are either in their prime or entering their prime. >> 51 wins
age 2023 2024
Nikola Jokic 28 69 72
Aaron Gordon 28 68 69
Jamal Murray 26 65 57
Michael Porter Jr. 25 62 59
Milwaukee Bucks >> The only team with two of the league’s top 10 players, but who is the fifth starter? Bobby Portis? Pat Connaughton? Malik Beasley? >> 53 wins
age 2023 2024
Giannis Antetokounmpo 29 63 67
Damian Lillard 33 58 65
Brook Lopez 35 78 69
Khris Middleton 32 33 52
Boston Celtics >> Jayson Tatum scored 2,225 points in the regular season (first), 543 in the playoffs (third), and 55 in the All-Star Game (first). >> 52 wins
age 2023 2024
Jayson Tatum 25 74 74
Jaylen Brown 27 67 68
Jrue Holiday 33 67 68
Kristaps Porzingis 28 65 63
Derrick White 29 82 74
Phoenix Suns >> Kevin Durant hasn’t played 70% of a season since he was in Golden State. Devin Booker is the only player remaining from their NBA Finals team. >> 49 wins
age 2023 2024
Devin Booker 27 53 65
Kevin Durant 35 47 53
Bradley Beal 30 50 57
Philadelphia 76ers >> Nick Nurse is an upgrade at coach. Doc Rivers is a downgrade as ESPN’s lead analyst. >> 48 wins
age 2023 2024
Joel Embiid 29 66 67
James Harden 34 58 61
Tyrese Maxey 23 60 66
Cleveland Cavaliers >> Could be the team of the future, but Donovan Mitchell is a free agent in 2025. >> 47 wins
age 2023 2024
Donovan Mitchell 27 68 68
Darius Garland 24 69 69
Jarrett Allen 25 68 68
Evan Mobley 22 79 75
Golden State Warriors >> Chris Paul addresses their biggest weakness during their championship run: They are a losing team when Stephen Curry is on the bench. >> 46 wins
age 2023 2024
Stephen Curry 35 56 65
Draymond Green 33 73 69
Chris Paul 38 59 66
Klay Thompson 33 69 57
Memphis Grizzlies >> Ja Morant will miss the first 25 games with of a gun fetish. Marcus Smart will steel them. >> 46 wins
age 2023 2024
Ja Morant 24 61 51
Jaren Jackson Jr. 24 63 61
Desmond Bane 25 58 66
Marcus Smart 29 61 64
Miami Heat >> There isn’t a more complete player in the league than Jimmy Butler. He may not score like Joel Embiid. Pass like Nikola Jokic. Or shoot like Stephen Curry. But he is the total package — offense, defense, clutch ability, decision making, conditioning, competitiveness. In the Heat’s Game 4 victory over the Bucks in the first round of the playoffs, Butler scored 56 points from every spot on the court and “guarded every single person on their roster at some point.”
Butler, who turned 34 last month, just finished the definitive four-season stretch of his career, leading the Heat to two Finals appearances and within a basket of a third.
Nikola Jokic led the league in regular season wins shares + playoff win shares with 19.9. Jimmy Butler was second, easily ahead of Jayson Tatum. ESPN ranked him 12th among the league’s best players. >> 46 wins
age 2023 2024
Jimmy Butler 34 64 65
Bam Adebayo 26 75 72
Tyler Herro 24 67 68
Los Angeles Clippers >> Kawhi and Paul George should start staggering their PTO and injuries now. >> 45 wins
age 2023 2024
Kawhi Leonard 32 52 51
Paul George 33 56 58
Los Angeles Lakers >> LeBron and Anthony Davis should start staggering their PTO and injuries now. >> 44 wins
age 2023 2024
LeBron James 39 55 59
Anthony Davis 30 56 56
Austin Reaves 25 64 65
Sacramento Kings >> Last season’s most improved team and the best offense. They will take a step back. >> 44 wins
age 2023 2024
Domantas Sabonis 27 79 74
De’Aaron Fox 26 73 70
Kevin Huerter 25 75 75
New York Knicks >> From pillar to post, no team plays harder. It’s a real tribute to Tom Thibodeau. >> 44 wins
age 2023 2024
Julius Randle 29 77 76
Jalen Brunson 27 68 72
Minnesota Timberwolves >> Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns played just 27 games together. >> 43 wins
age 2023 2024
Anthony Edwards 21 79 77
Mike Conley 36 67 68
Rudy Gobert 31 70 71
Karl-Anthony Towns 28 29 49
Oklahoma City Thunder >> Improved by 16 games last season. They won’t make another leap. >> 42 wins
age 2023 2024
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25 68 65
Chet Holmgren 21 -- 72
Atlanta Hawks >> There’s a great backcourt here. Quin Snyder should be able to unlock it. >> 42 wins
age 2023 2024
Trae Young 25 73 73
Dejounte Murray 27 74 73
New Orleans Pelicans >> Zion Williamson could play 20 games or 60 games. The projection splits the difference. The Pelicans were 17-12 with him, 25-28 without him. >> 42 wins
age 2023 2024
Brandon Ingram 26 45 56
Zion Williamson 23 29 41
Dallas Mavericks >> The Kyrie Irving experiment feels desperate because it is. He has played in 53% of his team’s games over the past four seasons. >> 42 wins
age 2023 2024
Luka Doncic 24 66 69
Kyrie Irving 31 60 59
Brooklyn Nets >> Mikal Bridges averaged 26.1 points on 53/38/89 shooting after being traded from the Suns to the Nets in February. Has never missed a game. >> 40 wins
age 2023 2024
Mikal Bridges 27 83 80
Nic Claxton 24 76 66
Chicago Bulls >> Lonzo Ball is out for the season. Too much of the load will be on Alex Caruso. >> 39 wins
age 2023 2024
DeMar DeRozan 34 74 73
Zach LaVine 28 77 73
Nikola Vucevic 33 82 78
Toronto Raptors >> Kawhi Leonard left. Kyle Lowry left. Fred VanVleet left. The Raptors keep running it back, because they think Pascal Siakam is a great player and OG Anunoby is untradeable. He’s not, and he’s not. >> 38 wins
age 2023 2024
Pascal Siakam 29 71 70
OG Anunoby 26 67 64
Scottie Barnes 22 77 75
Indiana Pacers >> Could be this season’s fun, Kings-sized surprise, with Tyrese Haliburton, Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin in transition. >> 37 wins
age 2023 2024
Tyrese Haliburton 23 56 65
Myles Turner 27 62 61
Bruce Brown 27 80 76
Obi Toppin 25 67 69
Utah Jazz >> Lauri Markkanen was last season’s breakout All-Star. John Collins gets a reboot. >> 37 wins
age 2023 2024
Lauri Markkanen 26 66 66
Orlando Magic >> Their best players are 21 to 25 years old. A winning team next season. >> 35 wins
age 2023 2024
Franz Wagner 22 80 78
Paolo Banchero 21 72 72
Charlotte Hornets >> Haven’t won a playoff series since 2002. Where have you gone, Jamal Mashburn? >> 32 wins
age 2023 2024
LaMelo Ball 22 36 53
Portland Trail Blazers >> The final return on Damian Lillard: Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon, Toumani Camara, three first-round picks and two pick swaps with the Bucks. >> 32 wins
age 2023 2024
Scoot Henderson 19 -- 72
San Antonio Spurs >> It’s not hype, if it’s real. Victor Wembanyama is the best prospect since LeBron. >> 30 wins
age 2023 2024
Victor Wembanyama 20 -- 72
Washington Wizards >> Draymond Green punched Jordan Poole all the way into basketball purgatory. >> 30 wins
age 2023 2024
Jordan Poole 24 82 76
Houston Rockets >> Fred VanVleet is a good addition. The rest of the team is young and dumb. >> 29 wins
age 2023 2024
Fred VanVleet 29 69 68
Detroit Pistons >> They signed coach Monty Williams for six years, $78.5 million. Now they need players. >> 26 wins
age 2023 2024
Cade Cunningham 22 12 41
