October 23, 2023

NBA preview / It’s about Dame time



Point guards are in transition this season. The Milwaukee Bucks acquired Damian Lillard, pairing him with perfect pick-and-roll partner Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Celtics picked up Jrue Holiday, giving them the strongest starting lineup in the league. James Harden, who called Daryl Morey a liar, is a conscientious objector. In the West, the Warriors traded for Chris Paul, giving them two pantheon lead guards. The Rockets added the savvy Fred VanVleet to their young team. The Grizzlies found Marcus Smart to spell the suspended Ja Morant. The Trail Blazers cleared the floor for rookie Scoot Henderson.

The games played projections are based on last season, the previous two seasons, and the idea that players gravitate toward 72 games played. A player’s recent history is the leading indicator of how many games he will play. There is little chance that that LeBron James, Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard play 65 games. The charts include each player’s age, games played last season and projected games played this season.

The NBA’s new player participation policy (PPP) and end-of-season awards requirements won’t make a significant difference. But in some notable cases, like Damian Lillard or Jimmy Butler, I rounded up to 65 games — the minimum for receiving All-NBA recognition.
— Kevin Brewer

Denver Nuggets >> The favorites to win again, with the undisputed best player in the league. Denver’s top four players are either in their prime or entering their prime. >> 51 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Nikola Jokic                       28       69       72
Aaron Gordon                       28       68       69
Jamal Murray                       26       65       57
Michael Porter Jr.                 25       62       59
Milwaukee Bucks >> The only team with two of the league’s top 10 players, but who is the fifth starter? Bobby Portis? Pat Connaughton? Malik Beasley? >> 53 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Giannis Antetokounmpo              29       63       67
Damian Lillard                     33       58       65
Brook Lopez                        35       78       69
Khris Middleton                    32       33       52

Boston Celtics >> Jayson Tatum scored 2,225 points in the regular season (first), 543 in the playoffs (third), and 55 in the All-Star Game (first). >> 52 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Jayson Tatum                       25       74       74
Jaylen Brown                       27       67       68
Jrue Holiday                       33       67       68
Kristaps Porzingis                 28       65       63
Derrick White                      29       82       74
Phoenix Suns >> Kevin Durant hasn’t played 70% of a season since he was in Golden State. Devin Booker is the only player remaining from their NBA Finals team. >> 49 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Devin Booker                       27       53       65
Kevin Durant                       35       47       53
Bradley Beal                       30       50       57

Philadelphia 76ers >> Nick Nurse is an upgrade at coach. Doc Rivers is a downgrade as ESPN’s lead analyst. >> 48 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Joel Embiid                        29       66       67
James Harden                       34       58       61
Tyrese Maxey                       23       60       66
Cleveland Cavaliers >> Could be the team of the future, but Donovan Mitchell is a free agent in 2025. >> 47 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Donovan Mitchell                   27       68       68
Darius Garland                     24       69       69
Jarrett Allen                      25       68       68
Evan Mobley                        22       79       75
Golden State Warriors >> Chris Paul addresses their biggest weakness during their championship run: They are a losing team when Stephen Curry is on the bench. >> 46 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Stephen Curry                      35       56       65
Draymond Green                     33       73       69
Chris Paul                         38       59       66
Klay Thompson                      33       69       57

Memphis Grizzlies >> Ja Morant will miss the first 25 games with of a gun fetish. Marcus Smart will steel them. >> 46 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Ja Morant                          24       61       51
Jaren Jackson Jr.                  24       63       61
Desmond Bane                       25       58       66
Marcus Smart                       29       61       64
Miami Heat >> There isn’t a more complete player in the league than Jimmy Butler. He may not score like Joel Embiid. Pass like Nikola Jokic. Or shoot like Stephen Curry. But he is the total package — offense, defense, clutch ability, decision making, conditioning, competitiveness. In the Heat’s Game 4 victory over the Bucks in the first round of the playoffs, Butler scored 56 points from every spot on the court and “guarded every single person on their roster at some point.”

Butler, who turned 34 last month, just finished the definitive four-season stretch of his career, leading the Heat to two Finals appearances and within a basket of a third.

Nikola Jokic led the league in regular season wins shares + playoff win shares with 19.9. Jimmy Butler was second, easily ahead of Jayson Tatum. ESPN ranked him 12th among the league’s best players. >> 46 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Jimmy Butler                       34       64       65
Bam Adebayo                        26       75       72
Tyler Herro                        24       67       68
Los Angeles Clippers >> Kawhi and Paul George should start staggering their PTO and injuries now. >> 45 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Kawhi Leonard                      32       52       51
Paul George                        33       56       58
Los Angeles Lakers >> LeBron and Anthony Davis should start staggering their PTO and injuries now. >> 44 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
LeBron James                       39       55       59
Anthony Davis                      30       56       56
Austin Reaves                      25       64       65

Sacramento Kings >> Last season’s most improved team and the best offense. They will take a step back. >> 44 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Domantas Sabonis                   27       79       74
De’Aaron Fox                       26       73       70
Kevin Huerter                      25       75       75
New York Knicks >> From pillar to post, no team plays harder. It’s a real tribute to Tom Thibodeau. >> 44 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Julius Randle                      29       77       76
Jalen Brunson                      27       68       72
Minnesota Timberwolves >> Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns played just 27 games together. >> 43 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Anthony Edwards                    21       79       77
Mike Conley                        36       67       68
Rudy Gobert                        31       70       71
Karl-Anthony Towns                 28       29       49
Oklahoma City Thunder >> Improved by 16 games last season. They won’t make another leap. >> 42 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander            25       68       65
Chet Holmgren                      21       --       72
Atlanta Hawks >> There’s a great backcourt here. Quin Snyder should be able to unlock it. >> 42 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Trae Young                         25       73       73
Dejounte Murray                    27       74       73
New Orleans Pelicans >> Zion Williamson could play 20 games or 60 games. The projection splits the difference. The Pelicans were 17-12 with him, 25-28 without him. >> 42 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Brandon Ingram                     26       45       56
Zion Williamson                    23       29       41
Dallas Mavericks >> The Kyrie Irving experiment feels desperate because it is. He has played in 53% of his team’s games over the past four seasons. >> 42 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Luka Doncic                        24       66       69
Kyrie Irving                       31       60       59
Brooklyn Nets >> Mikal Bridges averaged 26.1 points on 53/38/89 shooting after being traded from the Suns to the Nets in February. Has never missed a game. >> 40 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Mikal Bridges                      27       83       80
Nic Claxton                        24       76       66
Chicago Bulls >> Lonzo Ball is out for the season. Too much of the load will be on Alex Caruso. >> 39 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
DeMar DeRozan                      34       74       73
Zach LaVine                        28       77       73
Nikola Vucevic                     33       82       78
Toronto Raptors >> Kawhi Leonard left. Kyle Lowry left. Fred VanVleet left. The Raptors keep running it back, because they think Pascal Siakam is a great player and OG Anunoby is untradeable. He’s not, and he’s not. >> 38 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Pascal Siakam                      29       71       70
OG Anunoby                         26       67       64
Scottie Barnes                     22       77       75
Indiana Pacers >> Could be this season’s fun, Kings-sized surprise, with Tyrese Haliburton, Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin in transition. >> 37 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Tyrese Haliburton                  23       56       65
Myles Turner                       27       62       61
Bruce Brown                        27       80       76
Obi Toppin                         25       67       69

Utah Jazz >> Lauri Markkanen was last season’s breakout  All-Star. John Collins gets a reboot. >> 37 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Lauri Markkanen                    26       66       66
Orlando Magic >> Their best players are 21 to 25 years old. A winning team next season. >> 35 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Franz Wagner                       22       80       78
Paolo Banchero                     21       72       72
Charlotte Hornets >> Haven’t won a playoff series since 2002. Where have you gone, Jamal Mashburn? >> 32 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
LaMelo Ball                        22       36       53
Portland Trail Blazers >> The final return on Damian Lillard: Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon, Toumani Camara, three first-round picks and two pick swaps with the Bucks. >> 32 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Scoot Henderson                    19       --       72
San Antonio Spurs >> It’s not hype, if it’s real. Victor Wembanyama is the best prospect since LeBron. >> 30 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Victor Wembanyama                  20       --       72

Washington Wizards >> Draymond Green punched Jordan Poole all the way into basketball purgatory. >> 30 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Jordan Poole                       24       82       76
Houston Rockets >> Fred VanVleet is a good addition. The rest of the team is young and dumb. >> 29 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Fred VanVleet                      29       69       68
Detroit Pistons >> They signed coach Monty Williams for six years, $78.5 million. Now they need players. >> 26 wins

                                  age      2023     2024
Cade Cunningham                    22       12       41

May 12, 2023

Age [38] All-Star team



LeBron James, who received All-NBA honors for the 19th consecutive season on Wednesday, is the best 38-year-old player of all time. He averaged 28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists, shooting 58.0% on 2-pointers. He also broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record with a fadeaway jumper over Kenrich Williams and the Oklahoma City Thunder in February. The Lakers (43-39) were 30-25 with James in the lineup. He is the third 38-year-old to make an All-NBA team. Abdul-Jabbar made the first team in 1986, Tim Duncan the third team in 2015 and James the third team this season.
— Kevin Brewer

Age 38 >> Starting lineup

Forward >> LeBron James, Lakers, 2022-23
 >>  28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists (55 games)

Center >> Tim Duncan, Spurs, 2014-15
 >>  13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks

Center >> Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Lakers, 1985-86
 >>  23.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 56.5% 2-point shooting

Guard >> John Stockton, Jazz, 2000-01
 >>  11.5 points, 8.7 assists, 51.4% 2-point shooting

Guard >> Reggie Miller, Pacers, 2003-04
 >>  10.0 points, 3.1 assists, 40.1% 3-point shooting

Age 38 >> Bench

Forward >> Karl Malone, Jazz, 2001-02
 >>  22.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists

Forward >> Michael Jordan, Wizards (!), 2001-02
 >>  22.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists (60 games)

Guard >> Manu Ginobili, Spurs, 2015-16
 >>  9.6 points, 39.1% 3-point shooting (58 games)

Center >> Robert Parish, Celtics, 1991-92
 >>  14.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 53.5% 2-point shooting

Center >> Hakeem Olajuwon, Rockets, 2000-01
 >>  11.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, (58 games)

April 12, 2023

2023 NBA awards / The Big Score



Scoring reached an all-time high this season.

Scoreboards tilted. Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria.

Donovan Mitchell and Damian Lillard each scored 71 points in a game. The Sacramento Kings beat the Los Angeles Clippers 176-175 in the second-highest scoring game of all time. And Ol’ Man River just keeps rolling along: LeBron James broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record with a fadeaway over Kenrich Williams and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

If you’re scoring at home, a record six players averaged 30-plus points: Lillard, Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum. A record 43 players averaged 20 points — and that doesn’t include LeBron, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, Anthony Davis and a few others who played less than the qualifying 58 games.

There were 25 individual 50-point games. Doncic had four, including a 60-point triple-double. Lillard, Embiid and Antetokounmpo had three, Curry and Booker two.

>> Nikola Jokic was the league’s top player for the third straight season. Possibly the greatest, most creative passer of all time, the Nuggets center was 12 total assists shy of averaging a triple-double. He shoots like a guard, rebounds like a center. He led the league in virtually all advanced metrics, and my personal eye test.

>> The Brooklyn Nets trashed their four-year championship plan, trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and splitting up with Steve Nash — and they still made the playoffs.

>> Klay Thompson led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted in his first full season back from knee and Achilles injuries.
— Kevin Brewer

TEAMS

Best record >> Milwaukee Bucks, 58-24

Worst record >> Detroit Pistons, 17-65

Home team >> Golden State Warriors

Road team >> Sacramento Kings

Best offense >> Sacramento Kings

Best defense >> Cleveland Cavaliers

Fastest pace >> Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs

Slowest pace >> Cleveland Cavaliers

AWARDS

Most Valuable Player >> Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

2. Joel Embiid, 76ers
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
5. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers

Coach of the Year >> Mike Brown, Kings

2. Tom Thibodeau, Knicks
3. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics

Teammate of the Year >> Jalen Brunson, Knicks

Clutch Player of the Year >> De’Aaron Fox, Kings

Rookie of the Year >> Paolo Banchero, Magic

Sixth Man of the Year >> Immanuel Quickley, Knicks

Bench >> Malcolm Brogdon, Bobby Portis, Christian Wood, Tyus Jones, Malik Monk, Brandon Clarke

ALL-NBA >> First team

Forward >> Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
 >>  31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 59.6% 2-point shooting

Forward >> Jayson Tatum, Celtics
 >>  30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 85.4% free throw shooting

Center >> Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
 >>  24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists
 >>  67.5% 2-point shooting, 82.2% free throw shooting

Guard >> Luka Doncic, Mavericks
 >>  32.4 points, 8.0 assists, 58.8% 2-point shooting

Guard >> Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
 >>  28.3 points, 4.4 assists, 57/39/87 shooting splits

ALL-NBA >> Second team

Forward >> Jimmy Butler, Heat
 >>  22.9 points, 5.3 assists, 85.0% free throw shooting

Forward >> LeBron James, Lakers
 >>  28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists

Center >> Joel Embiid, 76ers
 >>  33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 85.7% free throw shooting

Guard >> Stephen Curry, Warriors
 >>  29.4 points, 6.3 assists, 58/43/92 shooting splits

Guard >> Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
 >>  32.2 points, 7.3 assists, 57/37/91 shooting splits

ALL-NBA >> Third team

Forward >> Julius Randle, Knicks
 >>  25.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists

Forward >> Jaylen Brown, Celtics
 >>  26.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 57.6% 2-point shooting

Center >> Domantas Sabonis, Kings
 >>  19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists

Guard >> Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
 >>  31.4 points, 5.5 assists, 90.5% free throw shooting

Guard >> De’Aaron Fox, Kings
 >>  25.0 points (5.0 in clutch minutes), 6.1 assists

LEADERS

Box Plus-Minus >> Nikola Jokic, 13.0

Estimated Plus-Minus >> Nikola Jokic, 7.9

Box score RAPTOR >> Nikola Jokic, 13.6

Scoring >> Joel Embiid, 33.1

Total points >> Jayson Tatum, 2,225

Rebounding >> Domantas Sabonis, 12.3

Total rebounds >> Domantas Sabonis, 973

Assists >> James Harden, 10.7

Total assists >> Trae Young, 741

Steals >> OG Anunoby, 1.9

Blocks >> Jaren Jackson Jr., 3.0

SUPERLATIVES

Best shooters >> Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant

Best mid-range shooters >> Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic

Best 3-point shooters >> Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson

Best free throw shooter >> Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Best backcourt >> Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, Cavaliers

Iron man >> Mikal Bridges, Suns and Nets (83 games)

Sensation >> Mac McClung, 76ers

Best young player >> Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves

Best old player >> LeBron James, Lakers